In Scottish News #1

I read an article titled "Farmers warned spring seeds carrying higher levels of disease" published in The Scotsman and located online HERE.

This article explains how the spring barley seed, planted in 2012 and being sown now, likely contains much higher levels of disease than normal. Testing indicates that more than 40% of the current crop could be infected with unprecedented levels of two fungal diseases, fusarium and microdochium. Farmers hoping to sell their barley crops to maltsters for use in brewing beer and distilling whiskey may find buyers unwilling to purchase infected grain. These disease also can cause reduced yield, low weights and reduced seed germination for farmers as well as possibly harming livestock if used in fodder. The end of the article briefly touches upon the proposals for agricultural trailers to undergo an annual road test aimed at reducing accidents. These proposals could negatively effect farmers and may deliver little genuine safety benefit.

The effects of the diseased barley seed could be present in many different markets. The first and most obvious market that will be affected, is the market for barley seed. The article mentions how beer brewers and whiskey distillers may be uninterested in buying Scottish barley seed because of the fungal diseases. If this did occur the demand for barley seed would decrease, causing the price and quantity of barley seed to also decrease. Another effect on the barley seed market could be a decrease in supply because the diseases negatively affect the amount of barley seed harvested. A decrease in supply would increase the price and decrease the quantity of barley seed sold in Scotland. If demand and supply both shifted in this way, the quantity would surely go down but the price could go up, down or stay the same. Other markets that could be affected are the markets for whiskey and beer. If the cost of barley goes up, either due to having to import barley from elsewhere, or because of the decrease in supply of barley, the supply of whiskey and beer could also decrease. This decrease in supply of Scottish beer and whiskey would cause an increase in the price and a decrease in the quantity. The final market I looked at was the market for livestock. If the supply of livestock is negatively effected by the animals getting sick from the diseased barley then the price of livestock will increase and the quantity will decrease.

This situation was caused by the weather in Scotland. Due to the extensive winter and cold conditions, farmers were unable to drill for seeds until later than they usually would. When drilling for barley seeds a fine warm seed be is advised, but farmers experienced cold, wet soil. This created slow emergence, forcing farmers to drill later and high infection levels which could significantly reduce plant counts. There doesn't seem to be a clear resolution to this problem. The fungal diseases are not extremely devastating in themselves, but how wide spread they are is worrisome. Suggesting that farmers test their seeds for disease will help. This will allow farmers to give buyers more information about the barley seeds sold.